Big tent or circus? Here why AOC, Pete and Gavin should think twice about 2028
Big tent or circus? Here why AOC, Pete and Gavin should think twice about 2028
Eric GarciaTue, August 11, 2026 at 9:40 PM UTC
5
No matter what anyone says, former Vice President Kamala Harris is the current Democratic frontrunner in the invisible primary. (Getty)
The Independent and Yahoo will earn a commission from purchases made via links in this article. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
It’s once again primary night in America. Minnesota, Connecticut, Vermont and Wisconsin will all hold primaries in their states. In addition, Alabama will hold primaries for its newly redrawn congressional map while South Carolina will hold a primary to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham on the Republican ballot.
All of these will set the stage for contests this November. But as any political junkie knows, once the midterms end, the presidential jockeying begins. Republicans seem firmly set on running either Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump.
That leaves the real contest — on the Democratic side. Earlier this year, Democrats moved their primary calendar for the Big-Six states before Super Tuesday. South Carolina will now go first, followed by Nevada, then New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and finally Virginia.
This will fundamentally alter the political calculus of any would-be candidate for the White House. As soon as the final ballots for the midterms are counted, it will be time to weigh the pros and cons of a presidential contest. Here is a list of potential candidates and why they should and should not run.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris
There’s no other way around it. By virtue of her being the most recent Democratic presidential nominee and someone who had to assemble a campaign within 107 days, she is the frontrunner. Just in the same way Joe Biden ran for president after Trump’s second term when voters were nostalgic for Barack Obama, Harris could easily swoop in offering a familiar product as some voters seek a return to the relative calm of the brief Biden era.
Why she should run: The new primary calendar puts South Carolina at the top. That means Black voters, particularly older female voters in that group, will likely turn out in droves for Harris. More likely than not, she will earn the endorsement of former House Majority Whip James Clyburn, the kingmaker whose nod made Hillary Clinton and Biden the respective nominees of 2016 and 2020. As Trump’s most recent opponent, she can easily call back to her warnings about the president.
Why she should think twice: Harris has never won a competitive presidential primary. She dropped out in 2019 and didn’t even make it to Iowa. Biden and Clyburn all but gifted her the Democratic nomination after Biden dropped out in 2024. And the fact remains, she still lost to Trump. All of this would make it extraordinarily hard to convince people that she should be the nominee again in a time when many voters want something new.
Biden’s Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has become an effective surrogate for Democrats. But it remains uncertain if he can win over Black voters. (Reuters)Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
When Buttigieg ran for president in 2019, he started out as the mayor of South Bend, Indiana with a funny-sounding last name. Six years later, he now has some experience under his belt as Secretary of Transportation during the Biden administration and a trusted surrogate for Democrats. Now married with a husband and children, with some facial hair to boot, he is already heading to New Hampshire and campaigning for Democrats in his new home state of Michigan.
Why he should run: Buttigieg is an effective communicator, being one of the few Democrats willing to go on Fox News to refute talking points. Still young at 44, he could make an argument that he can be a changing of the guard in a party dominated by senior citizens.
Why he should think twice: The fact South Carolina is now the first state in the primary contests puts Buttigieg at a significant disadvantage. While he won Iowa in 2020 in a coin toss with Sen. Bernie Sanders, he placed fourth behind Tom Steyer in South Carolina. While Clyburn suggested he could be a running mate to Harris in 2024 and she said in her memoir that she wanted to make him her running mate, he still needs to earn the trust of African American voters. And his nickname, “Mayor Pete,” also gives away he’s never held statewide office before.
And the fact remains that Buttigieg, and any other openly gay candidate, would still face stigma at the ballot box. In June, he revealed that he was separated from his children after someone filed a malicious false police report against him.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) faces an important question: seek the White House or run for Senate. (Getty)Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)
Perhaps no potential candidate has garnered as much buzz during the midterm cycle as the four-term democratic socialist from the Bronx and Queens. Eight years ago, she shocked the nation as an insurgent candidate who beat the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus in a primary. Now in her fourth term in the House, she’s a sought-after surrogate for Democrats of all stripes. She no longer rules out running for president, and also made some people wonder what her next steps would be when she announced she would be freezing her eggs.
Advertisement
Why she should run: Six years ago, Ocasio-Cortez served as Sanders’ surrogate in the primary, only to see the Vermont socialist get crushed in the South. This year, progressives have made significant gains. Her socialist ally Zohran Mamdani became the mayor of New York City and socialists won insurgent primaries across the country. She also bet big when she endorsed Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate primary and he won. Michigan will now be fifth on the calendar and she can also likely coalesce support among Hispanic voters in Nevada, which will go second, alongside New Mexico.
Why she should think twice: There might be a more attractive and attainable prize on the horizon in the near future: Sen. Chuck Schumer’s seat. Whether in a primary challenge or in an open race, Ocasio-Cortez will easily coalesce support in New York and elsewhere. In New York City, the Democratic Socialists of America’s army of door-knockers will easily boost her campaign. And while she led a poll in New Hampshire, barely beating Buttigieg, that might be irrelevant considering the Granite State goes third now.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is hoping to run up the scoreboard in his re-election campaign. But his moderate record and history of support for Israel might trip him up. (Reuters)Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
Perhaps no candidate looks better “on paper” than Shapiro. Governor of the ultimate swing state, who won his first race by double digits, he barely hides his ambitions to be the first Jewish president of the United States. His re-election campaign is essentially a presidential campaign-in-waiting at this point.
Why he should run: He’s the governor of Pennsylvania. That alone should be enough at a time when Democrats need to put the Keystone State back in their column. Some Democrats have wondered if Harris would have won Pennsylvania had she made Shapiro, rather than Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, her running mate. Shapiro has earned plaudits for his quick repair of the I-95 bridge and his crossover appeal in a state where races go down to the wire.
Why he should think twice: Shapiro bears striking resemblance to popular governors of yore who perform well in their home state, but not under the bright lights. See also Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2024, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in 2016 and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in 2016. Shapiro’s longstanding support for Israel might also turn off some voters in a time when many Democratic voters simply do not trust the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ironically, Shapiro, who practices conservative Judaism, is less of a hawk than fellow Pennsylvanian Sen. John Fetterman.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has fallen in the rankings, but still in the hunt. (Getty)California Gov. Gavin Newsom
About a year ago, Gavin Newsom seemed like a front-of-the-pack candidate for the 2028 nomination. His regular fights with Trump and his decision to put a ballot initiative to allow for a one-time redraw of California’s maps had him taking on the president at every turn. That, combined with his consistent jabs on social made him a hero. But since then, he has somewhat come down to Earth. Nevertheless, Newsom wears his ambition as obviously as the hair gel in his coif.
Why he should run: The best argument Newsom has is that he could argue it takes a bully to take on the mean-spirited-ness of the post-Trump MAGA movement. His term expires this year and he will not be constrained by his day job obligations the way some others will.
Why he should think twice: Newsom’s years as mayor of San Francisco, lieutenant governor and governor of California means he has years of political baggage. He survived a recall in 2021 after he was caught at a restaurant without a mask during the Covid-19 pandemic. Republicans, and even some Democrats, will be quick to point to California’s exorbitant cost of living and homelessness problem.
Newsom also poses the question of how much scandal the Democratic electorate will tolerate. Most recently, Ruby Rippey, who worked for Newsom when he was mayor of San Francisco and was married to his campaign manager and friend, published an essay about their affair that nearly tore her life apart.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear fits the profile of a fresh-faced young governor. But he also has a comparatively low-profile. (AFP/Getty)Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear
The last one on the list was also in the running to become Harris’ running mate. Beshear has been sort of busy lately dealing with the issue of his state’s senior senator Mitch McConnell going missing in action and not disclosing details about his health. But Beshear as the chairman of the Democratic Governors’ Association is traveling the country, including in important states like South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan, where he gets important facetime with voters, donors and party activists.
Why he should run: As a relatively fresh face, Beshear can be the candidate of change and would earn the support of organized labor in states like Michigan and potentially in South Carolina. He can also make the case that he won twice in one of the deepest red state in the country and faced fierce opposition in the legislature.
Why he should think twice: Every argument for why he should run can be turned around to be a reason he should not run. Yes, he won in deep-red Kentucky, but he did so in off-year low-turnout elections. Yes, he fought with the Republican-controlled legislature, but that means he has not accomplished much in terms of a partisan wishlist. Yes, he’s the fresher face, but that means most people don’t know who he is.
Of course, this isn’t even a full list. Some like Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) have weighed whether their newfound fame could be enough to boost a presidential run. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) denies he will run, but that might change depending on if he wins re-election in Georgia and by how much. But every would-be candidate has their internal reasons to run and to pass. Consider this just a cheat sheet.
Source: “AOL Breaking”
