AXT Slides Before Lumentum and Coherent Report Earnings This Week.

Eric Bleeker Tue, August 11, 2026 at 5:02 PM UTC

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AXT has surged 351% YTD but is pausing as traders de-risk ahead of Lumentum's closely watched earnings after tonight's close.

Coherent, up 76% YTD, plans to double internal InP wafer output by year-end 2026, a direct demand signal for AXT substrates.

Lumentum has beaten EPS four straight quarters, with past beats averaging a 7% day-of gain and 15% one-week gain.

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Shares of AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI) are drifting lower midday Tuesday, changing hands near $74 and roughly flat on the session. The relatively calm day follows a whip saw previous week that saw shares spike and then drop nearly 17% yesterday. Overall, AXT has rebounded from trading down to $36.97 on July 29th's close.

Looking further back, shares have surged 351% year to date. Traders across the optical complex appear to be de-risking ahead of Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) earnings after the close.

Optical Complex Pauses Ahead of Lumentum

AXT's move so far this week appears to be a sentiment tell rather than a reaction to its own results. AXT supplies indium phosphide (InP) substrates that feed directly into the silicon photonics and high-speed transceiver supply chain that Lumentum and Coherent (NYSE:COHR) sell into. When Lumentum reports tonight, its commentary on 800G modules, optical circuit switches, and co-packaged optics will set the tone for anyone tied to AI datacenter optical connectivity, and that includes AXT's core InP business.

The setup into tonight is loaded. Lumentum guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $960 million to $1.01 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $2.85 to $3.05 and operating margin of 35.0% to 36.0%. CEO Michael Hurlston flagged an OCS backlog above $400 million and an incremental multi-hundred-million-dollar co-packaged optics order.

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Reaction risk cuts both ways. Lumentum has beaten EPS estimates four consecutive quarters, yet last quarter shares still closed down 5% on the day of the print despite the beat, with an intraday range of $902 to $1,014. Over the last five reports, beats have delivered an average day-of move of +7% and a one-week average gain of +15%. That is the whipsaw AXT holders are staring down midday.

Peers Trade Mixed, Coherent Reports Tomorrow

Coherent shares also fell 14% yesterday. Wall Street commentary yesterday threw cold water on the potential transceiver ban out of China. Reuters reported on August 5th that the Trump Administration was looking to limit future optical transceivers from the country. That would be good news for domestic companies like Coherent, Lumentum, and Applied Optoelectronics. So, any Wall Street commentary that media reports of the ban are more the Trump Administration negotiating in public before a September summit with President Xi would lead to selling pressure on these names.

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A ban is far more complicated for AXT, so those same reports would seem to be positive for the company. Yet, AXT shares fell 17% yesterday. A transceiver ban would provide complications for AXT because the company relies on export licenses from China for its InP sales. If the U.S. were to ban Chinese optical transceivers, China could retaliate by limiting InP exports from the country.

All major optical stocks have been on a tear this year. Coherent is up 76% year to date, and Lumentum is up 121%. Against those runs, AXT's 351% YTD move stands out, and small pullbacks around sector catalysts are unsurprising after that kind of parabolic rally.

Coherent's own fiscal Q4 earnings lands tomorrow after the close, per confirmed company timing. Its guidance calls for revenue of $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.72. Notably, Coherent flagged plans to double internal InP wafer output by year-end 2026 and more than double it again by 2027. That is a direct read-through to AXT's substrate demand.

AXT's Own Numbers Are the Backdrop

AXT delivered its own step-function last quarter. Q2 revenue landed at $47.59 million, up 164.8% year over year and beating consensus by 40%, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 topped the $0.07 estimate. CEO Morris Young cited "strong customer demand for data center optical connectivity" and a "step-function increase in our revenue." That narrative rises or falls with what Lumentum and Coherent signal about forward optical demand.

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